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“Let me start with you we know that this is going to be a really really rough jobless claims number. We saw the number from last week. It s been clearly telegraphed and if you ve been paying any attention at all you know this is going to be a difficult number is there any number that would actually shocked or surprised the markets. I don t think so becky.
I think essentially the range is so wider the forecast. There s a lot of technical issues behind backlogs and processing that i just think enormous is it s probably the the best guess right now and it s really about next week. Believe it or not you want to see if this is just kind of a rush. A surge that s going to play itself out quickly or if this is now somehow gonna settle into some kind of a trend one of the reasons weekly jobless claims are such a valuable economic indicator normally is it s a very sensitive read on the trend the underlying trend of business and the labor market.
We re not getting any read on trend. We re getting readings on a shock at this point. So it s really again about how long this all lasts. I do think one way that the number could be relevant in a more short term basis is if it really restarts.
The discussion of hey. What congress has passed so far might not be enough that the fact phase for whatever that might look like perhaps has to get going before the markets can settle down a little bit and people have assurance that they re cushioned in terms of the real economy as well hey jj there may not be a number that really shocks us. But i m sure it s gonna be a number that still takes us a while to kind of get our head around and figure out what it all means and just to absorb it how does that impact trading at this point. Well.
I think you know that point you know many people are talking five and a half six million which is you know amazing double what we ve seen last week. And so with that i do think that will be at that high end of the range. Because you know we ve never really covered the self employed or independent contractors. Before and now with the cares act those people are going to be covered also so i would expect this to be a huge surge number.
But because there is such an expectation that this is going to be bad. I don t know that it s necessarily going to crush the market today. You know we saw like something it wasn t quite a crush that we saw from this number overall. I think what we really want to look or in the market over the what we ve seen over the last few days is what we want to continue to see becky and that is us trading now we ve had big moves don t get me wrong.
But we re not hitting up limit down limit. We re staying within. You know a hundred points on the s p 500 range. I know that that sounds crazy.
But that s actually the step to recovery is narrowing those ranges you know day by day week by week. So we can get into something that s more predictable. So as this number comes out you have you know if you look at what the s p. 500.
What the options market is telling us about the s p 500. We should expect a 62 range between now and tomorrow on the close so just you know that alone tells you that this volatility is going to continue. But i don t think that this number is that necessarily a market crushing. I guess.
That s a good point. I love life is relativity and and at least. There is a silver lining hey. We re not limit up and limit down especially a limit down jj where is the vix right now how do you think volatility is gonna go from here.
Yeah. You know the vix trading about about 54 right now becky and i down a little bit overnight. Obviously is the market rally. But there s no reason to think it s gonna go away right away.
But that s that s kind of my point overall is that if you if you look at what s going on right now again these are huge ranges don t get me wrong. But you don t come out of these things right away. And for those who are looking for the bullish case. I find it hard to believe we have this v recovery that many have talked about because even if we you know tomorrow.
They said okay all is good coronavirus is done you can go back to work i don t think people are necessarily hopping on planes hopping on cruise ships immediately a business is going to take a while to get going you had a guest on earlier. Talking about you may limit people in conference rooms. Etc. So this is going to take a while to get going that to me makes it very difficult for us to get a v shaped.
Recovery. Plus. The number two sector in the sp500 financials are taking the one two punch of business slowing down and rates being really low without that sector really having a chance to get going it s gonna be hard to be in that v shape recovery. So that s why i want to look for narrower narrower ranges or you can come out on every day.
You know people could say here s here s your resistance level here s a support level people. I m not really saying that right now because it s too unpredictable. ” ..
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