“Video was made possible by curiosity nstream when you sign up at curiositystreamcom. Wendover nyou nyou ll also get access to nebula the streaming video platform that wendover is a of i need not tell you what happened in march n2020. Whether you re watching this now or far nin. The future that date will forever remain in people s minds as when the century s nfirst pandemic emerged.
It will remain in people s mind s as when nthe era of social distancing and isolation began it will remain in people s minds as when nthey got sick or when a loved one got sick or worse in addition. Though for the millions of people nworldwide working in the aviation industry march. 2020 will mark the date when they lost ntheir jobs. When their company started turning south.
It will mark the beginning of the end. There is perhaps no industry more severely nimpacted by covid 19. Than aviation. As it is a brand new virus in these early ndays when there is no immunity or vaccines the only way to stop or slow its spread is nthrough physically isolating people that is intrinsically in opposition to what naviation is aviation works to bring people together that meant that one of the first measures.
Ngovernments implemented to slow the spread was to ban travel when the virus first emerged its transmission nprimary occurred in china with only isolated cases elsewhere from those who had travelled nfrom. The epicenter for this issue. The solution was simple ban ntravel from china. A number of countries notably including the nus.
Barred foreigners who had recently been in china from entering their borders. And nin response to the sharp decline in demand. A number of airlines cancelled their flights nto greater china. The financial implications of this were limited nas.
Few foreign airlines are significantly exposed to china partly due to the strength nof. The chinese airlines. Most of those mainland chinese airlines meanwhile nare government owned so they could take the hit of course nearby asian airlines like scoot ncathay pacific and ana would struggle. But the lockdown of china was more or less a weatherable nhit.
But then the virus spread first to south nkorea. So airlines cancelled flights to south korea. Then to iran so airlines cancelled nflights to iran then to italy so airlines cancelled flights to italy. But then it seeped nthrough.
Italy. Porous borders to take hold of the entirety of europe. That was the moment when to airlines the nsituation became severe europe is home to by revenue. Three of the nworld s six largest airlines.
The lufthansa group air france klm and iag to have a virus devastating their home territory nwas. An untenable situation nobody wants to travel to the center of a pandemic. But soon the untenable situation became worse on wednesday march 11th televisions switched non to the american president sitting behind his desk in the oval office. A speech in this setting is reserved for only nthe most solemn occasions only four such addresses occurred in the entire n2010s decade.
The president laid out some steps in his administration s nresponse to the virus. The most stunning of which being a complete ban on all foreign ntravelers from europe that was unprecedented europe and the us are two of the most culturally nand. Economically linked regions in the world and never before would anyone even imagine nanything even close to a complete travel ban between the two the amount of individuals. This would impact nwas astronomical.
The north atlantic is home to one of the busiest nflows of long haul flights in the world more than 1700. Aircraft per day cross the natlantic. Many of those enormous wide body jets. These are some of the most profitable flights nfor airlines out there to imagine that this would all just come to na stop was unthinkable now delta.
American and united would join nthe big european three to have their demand slashed by the virus. All six of the world s largest airlines nby revenue went into crisis mode beyond just the transatlantic flying intra europe. Nand. Us.
Domestic traffic figures dropped off a cliff as one example united airlines. The fourth nlargest airline in the world issued a press release announcing a 60 reduction in their nflight capacity in april 2020. Even with those drastic cuts. They.
Predicted nan average load factor how. Full their planes are of 20 30 . Since then they ve cut flights even further most every airline in europe started experiencing nnet negative bookings that means that they were refunding more bookings nthan they had coming in some airlines including qantas virgin australia nwestjet and more decided to cancel all but their domestic flights other airlines including lot brussels airlines nand austrian airlines decided to just completely close down for a few weeks or months. They would fly no flights at all since its occurrence 9.
11. Has been the defining ncrisis for the aviation industry since civil aviation began traffic. Numbers. Njust grew and grew and grew until suddenly on a sunny september morning.
That all stopped. It was bad and airlines did go bankrupt. Nbut overall. The industry eventually made it out the other end less than a week after coronavirus became na pandemic.
Though one thing became abundantly clear to airlines coronavirus to them nfinancially was worse than 9 11. This was the most severe drop off in passenger ndemand in the history of aviation airlines are no strangers to doing things nthat lose money. There is perhaps no industry out there that nso robustly embraces the idea of a loss leader than aviation airlines will go to great lengths to retain nloyalty both of individual travelers and of their corporate contracts. For example airlines can and often do keep nroutes flying in the depths of winter.
When traffic is the lowest in order to reliably npresent themselves as the go to airline for their customers..
If say there s a us based company with nsignificant amounts of travel to barcelona. They re only going to set up a corporate ncontract with an airline that can fly their employees. There year round therefore american airlines for example nmight fly there for twelve months a year. Even if only eight of those turn a profit that s because with the loss of corporate ncontracts.
They might only turn a profit flying to barcelona five months a year. So overall nyearly profit will be higher by taking a loss four months a year. The equation changes when nobody. Including nthose corporate customers wants to travel though therefore with the coronavirus reaching pandemic nlevel in one of the lowest traffic periods of the year.
Airlines quickly were able to nmake the decision to cut loss leading long haul flights these cuts are deep the lufthansa group for example. The seventh nlargest airline in the world by passengers is reducing its long haul schedule to a sole nflight from zurich to newark then flights from frankfurt to sao paulo newark chicago nmontreal tokyo bangkok and johannesburg to think that this is what the seventh largest nairline in the world in 2020. Looks like is unimaginable. But the situation at the world s nlargest airline american airlines is even more severe.
This is their long haul network. During the ncoronavirus. They ll fly just miami to london. Dallas nto.
London and dallas to tokyo. This is a situation. Without a lot of good nnews jobs will be lost and airlines will go bankrupt nbut. There is plenty of hope that the industry can survive.
While this fall will be far airlines do have nfurther to fall than after 9 11 in 1999. United american and delta achieved noperating margins the ratio of their earnings to. Revenues. Of 68.
65. And. 127 percent. Nrespectively in 2019 those.
Margins. Were. 99. 66 and n140 percent.
These are small differences. But a few percentage npoints can mean the difference between life and death for an airline. Another saving grace for airlines is the recent nplummet in oil. Prices.
This is the byproduct of a price war going non between two of the world s largest oil producers saudi arabia and russia the two countries had long worked together nto limit output based on demand and therefore more or less control oil prices but after nrussia refused to reduce their output saudi arabia responded by slashing prices and increasing nproduction in order to price russia out of the market therefore. The same barrel of jet fuel that nwould have cost airlines 60 in february costs only 40 in march 2020. That s a significant discount on airlines nbiggest cost and if it were not for the biggest drop in demand in the history of aviation nthey would be celebrating a huge increase in profits in the midst of the crisis though they re ntaking the small win of smaller losses. The aviation industry as a whole never truly nrecovered from the effects of 9 11.
That s because recovery implies getting nback to normal. And that s something that never happened after 9. 11. And certainly will nnever happen after coronavirus.
It s nearly impossible to predict what will nhappen in the aftermath of a situation never seen before as we ve seen already and will certainly ncontinue to see the response to extraordinary circumstances is extraordinary measures therefore the industry will emerge from the nother end something completely new and novel. How deep the dip sinks will be determined nby. How high the curve soars. And that will be determined by world governments organizations nand.
More than all how every individual out there responds to covid. 19. For those of you subscribed to nebula a brand nnew original called money made by the fantastic youtuber tom scott just released. I along with sophie ward mike boyd.
Mia nmulder and rohin francis were subjected to five of tom s games in order to win real nmoney. This was an enormous amount of fun to participate nin and it s just as fun to watch. Which you can do exclusively on nebula. The best way to get access to nebula of course nis by subscribing to curiosity stream home to thousands of fantastic documentaries and nnon fiction shows that s because curiosity.
Stream offers a nbundle deal with nebula so that you get access to both streaming sites for. Just 20 a. Year nat curiositystreamcom. Wendover that s truly the best deal in streaming nespecially considering that on nebula in addition to my tom scott s and everyone nelse s originals.
You can watch all wendover and half as interesting videos completely nad free once again that bundle deal is. Available. Nat. Curiositystreamcom.
Wendover and by signing up you ll be supporting wendover productions. Nand plenty of other independent educational. ” ..
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“Sign up for an annual CuriosityStream subscription and also get a free Nebula subscription (the new streaming platform built by creators) here: http://CuriosityStream.com/wendovernnListen to Extremities at http://ExtremitiesPodcast.comnnBuy a Wendover Productions t-shirt: https://standard.tv/collections/wendover-productions/products/wendover-productions-shirtnnSubscribe to Half as Interesting (The other channel from Wendover Productions): https://www.youtube.com/halfasinterestingnnYoutube: http://www.YouTube.com/WendoverProductionsnInstagram: http://Instagram.com/sam.from.wendovernTwitter: http://www.Twitter.com/WendoverPronSponsorship Enquiries: [email protected] emails: [email protected]: http://Reddit.com/r/WendoverProductionsnnAnimation by Josh SherringtonnSound by Graham Haerther (http://www.Haerther.net)nThumbnail by Simon BuckmasternnMusic by http://epidemicsound.comnSelect footage courtesy the AP ArchivennReferences:n[1 https://www.eurocontrol.int/news/celebrating-100-years-transatlantic-flightsn[2 https://hub.united.com/2020-03-17-united-airlines-further-reduces-domestic-and-international-schedules-2645516655.htmln[3 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1cRgtHZ4sRPj4BdcJa2y09SKaG8SRrLLtntHSegfmmoU/htmlviewn[4 http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NYS/UAL/reports/032702.pdf; https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/static-files/980efd76-fcc6-497a-8933-23f212512019; https://d1lge852tjjqow.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000027904/916484c6-c1ce-4ecd-90d7-ae41981ab8b4.pdfn[5 http://ir.united.com/static-files/1dc3696a-8b66-481f-ba5c-d0e4d407f9cf; https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/static-files/d46a00e3-db05-4a91-af7a-fbe0fc2a7f08; https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000027904/1fe7420e-4781-437f-92c3-08991a2d6695.pdfn[6 https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/03/09/saudi-russian-price-war-sends-oil-and-stockmarkets-crashing”,
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